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31 August New France?So the President of France is called Nicolas Sarkozy. That's about all I knew about him till today to be honest. Today however he turned up on my news feeds for the second time in a week sporting a very, well... unfrench policy. To be fair, when I say 'unfrench' I mean from my perspective of a their views, which I will very readily confess is completely inadequate. Still, I more expect to see the French avoid conflicts at all costs and speak of the US as a rival rather than an ally. I've had a lot of reading to do over the past few weeks and some of it pertains to NATO. Even the name - 'NATO', has to be painted on everything twice because the French demanded it should also be called 'OTAN', which is what they want to call it. Several times in NATO's history have the French pulled support and their commitments because they either didn't feel respected enough (compared to the UK and US) amongst the other NATO nations, or because the commitments were a bit too hot for them and it was beginning to dig into their domestic state. Ok, I'm maybe getting unfair now, but then it was during a speech made by the French President on his plans to withdraw from NATO's forces that the term 'Special Relationship' was first given to the US and UK, and that this relationship was a driving force in France's decision to build an autonomous defense capability instead. Which all sounds a bit childish to me. And further back you're not short on examples of rocky British/French relations through all our history. Anyway - that was then, but even in more recent years President Jacques Chirac (the last French Pres) showed the finger to us at just about every opportunity, and has been reluctant to put France in a position of responsibility, preferring to openly and harshly judge the actions of other leaders when they take any actions. French society sounds to enjoy a more comfortable domestic budget from it's inclination to do less on the global scale (let's not forget any western nation calling another decadent is something of the pot calling the kettle mind you, and I think when comparing France with the UK directly, our relative shortfalls on key domestic areas is a lot more to do with how badly we use our funds rather than how France ducks from foreign policy expense, but I do get the impression it's helpful to not have to pull their weight as much). In any case, justified or not, as just a guy who only knows what he sees in the papers and the web, I'm not given a lofty opinion of French foreign policy. In some cases, I find myself in agreement with it - the Iraq war is a good example, and the way in which France wanted to approach the Iranian nuclear issue was definitely an avenue I was pleased to see Germany, France, and Britain explore before a more heavy handed US style approach could jump in prematurely. So my problem with French foreign policy isn't always the effective policy as much as it is the attitude behind it. Alliances seem to count for nothing, and when the ideal solution doesn't work out, they're not interested in seeing it through any further, which makes me think being part of the early stages is more about looking good when it works out than being committed to resolving the particular crisis when it requires making tougher and less ideal decisions. Back to Sarkozy, he's come out with statement saying the French are going to grow into the global community and take their place within it more seriously. It's his intention to improve French/American relations and re-enforce that they are first and foremost close allies. Then, yesterday, Prime Minister Brown and President Sarkozy issued a joint statement (yes, you read that right - a whole statement that a French and British leader have managed to agree on) to the press announcing that they will be prioritising and heavily investing to make progress in Darfur. It's not lip service either - it's troops - tens of thousands of them, and cash - hard cash to support the missions. I feel it's important to note here that in no way do I mean that France have not committed it's peoples lives before - French troops make the backbone of several other UN peacekeeping forces. The difference here is that Sarkozy is pushing for it and leading the call to increase the action with us, not fulfilling a job that has been reluctantly accepted. I read a little more on the man, and he seems genuinely committed to NATO and the UN, even to the extent that they should get along with America. In fact he slated Chirac's handling of the Iraq war saying, "It is bad manners to embarrass one's allies or sound like one is taking delight in their troubles." which is pretty much the nail on the head when it comes to my view of Chirac. He did oppose the war, but he feels there are respectful and responsible ways to make that case, which again, is spot on in my opinion. I'm very encouraged he's been elected given he was well known in these views before the vote - it makes me think the French public wish to take this direction too. This new France may only last for a single Presidential term, but I for one welcome them to the table and am most pleased to have them as an ally I can really respect. I think Sarkozy will be a very positive influence on our own foreign affairs and perhaps he'll even help curb the US a little when the temperatures are high. This blog is getting awfully political... I think a few silly posts might be on their way :) __ 27 August Georgia has teeth apparently. Who knew?I forgot to post before I went away last weekend -
Russia apparently incurred into Georgian airspace again, only this
time, the Georgians were ready and fired on the plane.
The result of the conflict was unconfirmed when I left and I can't see
any follow ups right now, but they had been fairly sure the missile hit
the plane, and it was confirmed that a near by area of forest was on
fire... which doesn't sound like the aircraft made it. The Russians of
course, are denying the whole thing having taken place. Gotta love
'em. While it appears Georgians should be pleased with themselves for
such a victory, the ramifications of this are going to be much worse
for them than for Russia I'm sure, and again, I'd be a little less
cagey if I was Georgia, at least until they're actually in the EU
and/or NATO. It's exactly this kind of event that triggers wider scale
conflicts. One response leads to another and before you know it, NATO
and the SCO are mobilising their forces World wide. Like the
assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand by a Balklands State, the
lone, small, poor nation of Georgia have the potential to tip the world
into its most darkest period of history. Crazy. Ok, that's all for now. Normally, I only ride Epic Mounts... but... let's talkI got me an Epic Flying Mount :-D It's a Golden Gryphon in Green Armour Plating, and it's beautiful. On the ground it travels about 60, 65% faster than I can run, and in the air it travels about 260% faster than I could run with the added bonus of avoiding obstacles (for you WoW'ers who are confused by those figures, they're less than what you expect not cos I got a dysfunctional gryphon, but because I can run faster 30% than the average bear... and person).
I took it for a quick spin last night from ShadowMoon Valley to Shattrath and I sware I felt tingly feelings in my stomach. This is sad I know. And it's in fact, 30% sadder than it would be for the average bear... and person, since I fly in real life and *still* get that excited about the Gryphon. The very same day in fact, I'd been up in the microlight from St Micheals Airfield (North of Preston) to Caernafon in Wales (West of Snowdon) and back again, following the coast, over the mouth of the Mersy with the city scape spanning the river a short way in land, and between and over the beautiful Welsh hill tops to have a big fried breakfast in the airfield cafe as we chat with the other flyers, families who've come to see the planes fly in and out, and to the RAF boys who'd come to sit about the club house. As an added bonus, one or two of the airfield staffers were *hot*. I'm talking diet coke ad hot - everything went slow motion. We had a look round the air museum and I spent a while getting tips from the RAF crew about passing selection which is going to be very helpful indeed. I've asked service men of the RAF for tips before but wearing a normal business suit. The answers you get are 'Be yourself', 'relax in the tests', 'do your best', etc etc. This is useful, but when you ask whilst wearing a flight suit, you get much different responses, 'In the interview, they'll ask [this] - and it's a bit of a trap cos most people say [this], but it's much better to say [this]...' and 'In the hanger exercises there's a bit where they do [this] and they'll be observing you not for [this] and [this] like you'd think, but in fact, they watching [this] - the situation is all just enduced to make you drop your guard in [that] way', etc etc... Woot. 17 August Drums of War?On the one hand I enjoy writing a blog that major news outlets then shadow days later - on the other hand, I'm starting to wish news would show reality is heading in a different direction to my predictions...
Here's the story - I advise a read:
So okay, we're still just assuming the worst case scenario, but pretty soon that's going to be my job so I'm just getting into the mindset. But the article says Russian press are calling the China/Russia led alliance as the 'anti-NATO' and 'Warsaw 2'. Does anyone else feel an uneasy sense of history repeating with these olympics being held in China? Whatever your analysis on this years military shifts and events - you have to admit, it's looking very similar to the preamble to both past World Wars.
I convince myself these things are possibly true to draw comfort...
The Chinese economy is strong and growing, but only because the West buys from them. For now (though this will not last forever), the Chinese econmoy is dependant on continued trade relations with the US and EU, and they would not be able to mantain a high expense period, such as a war, without it. Economy is a bit of a phantom factor, but in China's case, the country lacks certain essential resources, such as wood, and so depends on international trade to maintain it's dependant infastructure. Similarly, Russia is not self sustaining enough to maintain super power status in issolation of the West.
The SCO (Shanghai Co-operation Organisation) is more divided than even NATO is. The nations of the alliance have very different interests beyond their view of the US, and even in regards to how they think the West should be responded to there is severe disagreement. Russia and China themselves are far from happy partners. Russia historically supported China's militray development but only to a point where by they woud have the ability to strike Russia. There is a relationship of distrust, hthough if this argument becomes our only comforting hope, it's probably stopped being true.
But I know some pretty damn smart people who know more about politics like this than me, and they say I shouldn't worry.
Still... Russian and Chinese joint military exercises? Claims over territory? Buildups and diplomatic insults?
I got a bad feeling about this.
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Phil 10 August To seek out new forms and new duplicationsSo last Friday was a RAF day. Started at 11am and went on till 3:30pm which wasn't too long, but there was no break for lunch so there were a few gurgling tummies along the way. The day included some one on one (in earshot of the other candidates), but mostly group questions and presenting. In between those parts, you either sat reading or filling in forms. So many, many forms. And on every one I have to write my name, address, parents, nationality, etc etc etc... Speaking of which, what am I doing writing blogs? I have a crap load of study to do! Be good, I don't mean to worry anyone but...Is anyone else concerned about a thrid world war in the making? Not to sound over dramatic, but I think we in the UK might be a tad out of touch, perhaps even naive about the possibility for the most part and world affairs this year should be little red flags at the very least.
First up, China's military budget has increased by a massive 17.8%. It's normal annual increase is way less than that so 2007 represents a significant change in their ongoing defence policy. There were a lot of articles at the time that debated the intention behind, and many hinted to the likelihood that the 'official' budget China declared openly represented only a proportion of the true spending. Assuming true spending isn't a long way from their declared figure, or that the US equally fudges it's declared spending figures to down play their focus on military might, the Chinese military budget is around 10% of the US military budget, so it's hardly fair to claim China is behaving unacceptably. Still, it troubles me, and it sure troubled Austral Asia and the US when China shot down a satellite. Why so worried? China was showing the world they had the capability to destroy satellite, which the multi multi multi billion... possibly trillion dollar 'Star Defence Shield' replies completely upon. Isn't that always the way? Super advanced expensive US system countered in a heartbeat by a (relatively) cheap, (relatively) simple, and readily available missile. Should the US start acting like it's invulnerable to nuclear attack and invading nations world wide (heh heh, 'Should'. No, seriously...), China can disable their shield, and *then* fire nukes, making the shield pretty pointless... even if they could get it to work. Japan and Austraillia spoke out with outrage, and I suspect this was US 'encouraged', as the US accusing the Chinese of 'arming space' would no doubt bring attention to the fact that the US are doing exactly that with the 'shield', while these weapons of China's do still have the virtue of being ground based and therefore legal (international treaties forbid the arming of space, and the 'shield' isn't an energy field or anything from a cool sci-fi as much it is a whole lot of missiles that are fired to intercept nukes before they reach 'shielded' land).
China were also in the news when a patrol boat fired upon a Japanese fishing boat in international waters. They were actually disputed waters that China wants to claim, but that claim has not been recognised yet and this attack was little short of an act of war had it been a nation likely to respond in such a way. The boat was not destroyed, though some were killed and the others taken prisoner, and they were kept despite international protests, without apology. It's a small incident, but it's showing they intend to wield ruling authority that you'd only really expect from the US.
China is of course, very big, and has a very large army to go with it. Population wise it dwarfs the US, and if by no other reason than sheer number, it's very much a super power in military terms, as much as the US would like the world to believe it is the only one. Actually the US did concede China's importance in this way earlier in the year by installing a 'red phone' style link between Washington and Beijing (like was installed for Russia in the cold war). China also started it's own space programme (which the UK have partnered actually, in case you didn't know), which makes everyone worry they will eventually enter space on the same terms as the US, and trigger an space based arms race (think more satellite based weapons and less starships mind you).
But China's not the biggest concern this week, and perhaps to Europe as a whole, China is always a second concerns to Russia. Late last night I walked into the front room where my Dad was watching the news, and asked one simple question. Has Russia gone insane!?! In the past week, Russia fired a missile at Georgia. Two jets flew over the border, over the Georgian Capital, and fired a missile into a field 80km from said Capital (I know that sounds like a lot but in missile terms it ain't all that), then returned home.
The missile did not explode, but apparently, if it had, it would have caused unthinkable damage to the village it was in, and to the economy of the country. To be fair, if untold damage was done to Georgia's economy I'm not sure how we'd know - as Russia has already closed borders, trade routes, and even cut of gas supplies to the fledgling cold war buffer nation throughout the last year, killing it's trade, employment, and costing it more than it can afford in emergency provision. Russia's motives behind the attack were a mystery. In fact they flat out denied the attack, even when presented with evidence of the Russian built missile being there, and the radar and photographic recording of the Russian jets (type, registration, everything) doing the entire run, they still said the accusations were unfounded (I love how Russia does that - it's just very very funny). Suggestions were that Russia was 'sabre rattling', in a kind of 'we can fly over your border, hit you with missiles, fly home, and there's not a damn thing you can do about it, nor will anyone care' way. Fair do's. This alone doesn't raise much concern, to be honest, no one does care much about Georgia's defence against Russia and if I were them I'd think about just how dependant on Russia I were, and maybe just play their way with less resistance to begin with - not saying it's fair - just saying. It could have also been a message to the US, as Russia recently made clear it is not happy with the 'Star shield' being placed in European locations. In much the same way China as saying they can take out the orbital guidence part of the system, Russia have shown they can take out the ground based part of the guidance system. The system needs both to work, so either one would do, and even if they could get it to defend the satellite by intercepting Chinese ballistic missiles, the shield has no means of intercepting missiles launched from jet planes at close proximity and low altitude. Well.. other than interceptor jets preventing those planes making such a ground attack, but that's not easy to guarnetee, especially outside of US homeland. Speculations were made too that it was a rogue operation - who knows?
Not worried yet? There's more! Oh how there's more. Earlier this year, Russia sent a warning when it suspecnded participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty, openly declaring they're not so interested in maintaining balance any more, and with the most recent disputes between Britain and Russia over the assassination, or... the 'trailing lethally nuclear materials around our country for any reason at all, let alone to murder someone' thing, and the ramifications of expelling diplomats, which Russia has returned on with the same response and a continued refusal of extradition, I'd say EU and Russian relations are getting pretty strained, and we have not reached the end of this one yet.
Russia's not going to attack Europe though now is it? Well... except of course they already have but Georgia doesn't count... I mean like, the EU. The US would get involved too and Russia aren't signalling any hostile intent to them are they now? Oh... they are. Russia flew two bombers, capable of firing nuclear weapons, right out over to the US, who scrambled interceptors to meet them. Apparently the pilots exchanged smiles from their cockpits as the US planes tracked the Russians course until they eventually turned back. This was a common act during the cold war, and Russia has stated that it was simply 'reviving the tradition'. The fact that the Russian force was only two prop powered bombers is a clear sign their intention was not to incur - there's very limited chance even jet bombers could get past US interceptor/fighter planes, but the whole incident is a very clear message to one effect. Russia's foreign policy has changed, and it plans to be a lot more aggressive in it's politics from now on.
Empty threats and cheap shows? Perhaps. It's not like Russia have actually made any specific demands or attempted to move their borders or anything. Oh no... wait - they have. Yes - they want the Arctic. All the way from Russia to the North pole. This is a dispute that's got the Canadians rattled up - as another Arctic nation (and I think then next largest one), Canada is extremely concerned over Russia's claim that planting a flag on the Arctic sea bed makes the land theirs, as 16th Century explorers would have done. Canada says that's not how it works any more, and Russia seems to be saying, 'You want to say otherwise? Try us.' I'm afraid I just don't think Canada has the balls to do anything about it, and I think Russia knows that and isn't the least bit worried over Canada's 'We wont let you' response to this move. I watched the Canadian academic on the news saying 'I'm sure we can talk this over as two responsible nations and can't think of any reason why this would come to a direct conflict'. The Russian diplomat in the BBC studio had a little smirk on his face at that. He can't think of any reason? Not one? Really? Canada doesn't think maybe... the vast vast stores of oil and gas under the Arctic might perhaps be a motivating factor? No? Can't think of anything? Ok then. It's not as if oil has been a motivating force for conflict anywhere else I suppose - fair enough.
As girly and incapable of taking the necessary stance as Canada is, they do make a very valid point of the irony that this whole situation represents. The reason the Arctic is now so valuable is that the oil underneath it is becoming accessible. It is accessible because the ice has retreated due to global warming. Global warming is caused by the burning of oil and gas, and threatens the world as a whole. You see it. The Russian guy smirked rather dismissively at that argument too. To be fair to him, as much as they're claiming the green high ground, the Canadian's interests are in the oil as well - they're also in dispute of the Northwest passage with the US right now, and as much as they claim they just want to 'protect the arctic', their need to have accepted soveriegnty over the land isn't for any other reason than it would put the oil in their control for eventual, however slow and 'carefully' done, extraction and sale/use. If they have soley green intent here, they'd be far more succesful brokering a treaty of arctic nations (actually, Russian claims not withstanding, it's international waters, so global treaty) to ensure the arctics protection. Course the Russian's wouldn't agree to that either so sure, it's all pointless. Unless Canada wants to break out that Navy of theirs, Russia's claim will go ahead unopposed.
So - to recap. Russia and China have increased military spending and actions, as well as behaving much more forcefully in international politics across the board, and making advances in territory, capability, and disputed future ambitions. Canada, the UK, in fact the whole of Europe, the US, Australia, and Japan have all faced them off respectively and the larger of those nations have signalled they too are prepared to use force of arms if they feel they have to. And a huge cash of unclaimed oil and gas, sitting right on the northern border of 3 of those nations.
Now tell me we're not even a little bit worried that things could get out of hand.
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Phil |
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